{"id":2063,"date":"2017-01-15T11:40:23","date_gmt":"2017-01-15T10:40:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/?p=2063"},"modified":"2020-01-17T08:08:44","modified_gmt":"2020-01-17T07:08:44","slug":"buduce-deficity-prveho-piliera-slovenskeho-dochodkoveho-systemu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/buduce-deficity-prveho-piliera-slovenskeho-dochodkoveho-systemu\/","title":{"rendered":"Bud\u00face deficity prv\u00e9ho piliera slovensk\u00e9ho d\u00f4chodkov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ivan Lichner, Ekonomick\u00fd \u00fastav Slovenskej akad\u00e9mie vied, Slovensk\u00e1 republika<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Strany: 3 &#8211; 12<\/p>\n<h5>Abstrakt<\/h5>\n<p>V d\u00f4sledku starnutia popul\u00e1cie na Slovensku bud\u00fa v priebehu najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch dek\u00e1d rap\u00eddne r\u00e1s\u0165 v\u00fddavky na zdravotn\u00fa a dlhodob\u00fa starostlivos\u0165 a d\u00f4chodkov\u00fd syst\u00e9m, pri\u010dom o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9 vplyvy na trh pr\u00e1ce bud\u00fa taktie\u017e v\u00fdznamn\u00e9. Tieto faktory z\u00e1sadne ovplyvnia v\u00fdvoj a udr\u017eate\u013enos\u0165 verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed. V tomto pr\u00edspevku je prezentovan\u00fd odhad bud\u00facich deficitov prv\u00e9ho piliera slovensk\u00e9ho d\u00f4chodkov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu z\u00edskan\u00fd prostredn\u00edctvom stochastick\u00e9ho simula\u010dn\u00e9ho modelu. Aplikovan\u00fd modelov\u00fd r\u00e1mec sa sklad\u00e1 z dvoch \u010dast\u00ed (pr\u00edjmovej a v\u00fddavkovej) a odhaduje bud\u00faci mzdov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ako stochastick\u00fd proces, ktor\u00e9ho parametre s\u00fa zalo\u017een\u00e9 na historickom v\u00fdvoji za roky 2000 \u2013 2014. V\u00fdvoj d\u00f4chodcovskej infl\u00e1cie ako d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fd faktor rastu \u00farovne vypl\u00e1can\u00fdch d\u00f4chodkov sme odhadli prostredn\u00edctvom jednorovnicov\u00e9ho regresn\u00e9ho modelu.<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 2.1em; padding-left: 0px; color: #1e4e9d;\">\u010cl\u00e1nok na stiahnutie<\/span><br \/>\n<a class=\"download-pdf\" onclick=\"window.open('https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/?dl_id=207','new','');return false\"  href=\"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/?dl_id=207\"><i class=\"far fa-file-pdf\"><\/i> PDF<\/a><span class='download-text'> (1,6 MB, 821 stiahnut\u00ed)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ivan Lichner, Ekonomick\u00fd \u00fastav Slovenskej akad\u00e9mie vied, Slovensk\u00e1 republika<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[797],"tags":[904,907,905,266,906],"class_list":["post-2063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-1-2017-vedecke-clanky","tag-autor-ivan-lichner","tag-deficity","tag-dochodkovy-system","tag-populacne-starnutie","tag-stochasticka-simulacia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2063","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2063"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2063\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2064,"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2063\/revisions\/2064"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2063"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2063"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ssad.statistics.sk\/SSaD\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2063"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}